Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Seven Reasons Obama Will Lose

What's really going on in the presidential election . . .

"7 Worrisome Signs for Obama" in Politico


"His [Obama's] supporters are now suffering a pre-Denver panic attack, watching as John McCain draws incrementally closer in state and national polls -- with Rasmussen's most recent daily tracker showing a statistical dead heat."

A Quinnipiac University pollster says, "This election is about Barack Obama — not John McCain — it's about whether Barack Obama passes muster. Every poll shows that people want a Democratic president; the problem is they’re not sure they want Barack Obama."

The seven worrisome signs for Obama are:

1. The role Obama's race will play in voters' decisions; "How much does his race factor into tightening contests in Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota and Ohio? Nobody knows — and that’s the problem." [Note: The races are not tightening because people are gaining confidence in Obama.]

2. "Obama’s strength in Virginia may be overhyped"; Obama staffers look at the state as a 50-50 proposition, but his odds of winning may be less than that. [If Obama doesn't do very well in the DC suburbs, he will lose VA.]

3. "Michigan's in play for McCain"; the Democrats probably can't win without Michigan. There, "McCain has quietly crept up over the past month and could vault ahead if he anoints ex-Gov. Mitt Romney as his running mate." (Note: Michiganders would have much preferred Hillary Clinton as the candidate.)

4. Difficult economic times can engender fear among voters, and that could benefit McCain, who is more of a known quantity than Obama. (Note: Economics may not be McCain's strong suit, but it also doesn't look like an Obama strength.)

5. McCain doesn't have to face the "Ross Perot factor" that helped Bill Clinton greatly in bringing down George H. W. Bush in 1992;

6. Obama is NOT a white Southerner with border-state strength, the only kind of a Democrat who has won the White House in the last 65 years (LBJ, Carter, and Clinton);

7. "Americans may WANT divided government"; as one Democratic strategist puts it, ". . . Nobody wants a pair of Pelosis [Nancy and Barack] running things."

Former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey puts it this way: People "want change, but I'm not sure that the Democratic agenda has the support of a majority of Americans."

No comments: