From the Desk of:
Steve Elliott, Grassfire Nation
We expect the dirty backroom deal on ObamaCare to be
struck this week. But final passage is not yet guaranteed.
See below for six ways ObamaCare can still be defeated
(including the "Massachusetts Miracle").
With Harry Reid under the gun for his "negro dialect" comments
and public opposition to ObamaCare continuing to increase,
the pressure is mounting for Democrats to finalize their
We believe that deal could be struck this week. Reid and
Pelosi will agree to bypass the traditional House-Senate
Conference and rush identical bills back to their chambers
for a final vote.
But with each passing day, their secretive strategy is getting
And although ObamaCare is still likely to pass and be signed
into law, this is not a done deal!
In fact, we have identified six possible scenarios that could
cause ObamaCare to be defeated.
I'll start with the least likely...
The left is nearly as angry as the Right, calling the Reid bill
a bailout for the insurance industry. The unions are upset
about the tax on their so-called "Cadillac" health care plans
and want that removed. The Left has held the coalition together
with a "live together, die alone" motto, but politics changes
with the wind. And the Left knows the winds are changing. I
list this first because it is the least likely. But it is
#5--One Democrat Senator can't make it to the floor to vote.
Despite the backroom deals and dirty tricks, as we understand
it there will be one more final cloture vote in the Senate.
Rules require 60 votes to invoke cloture. If one Democrat
Senator can't make it to the floor, for any reason (health,
accident, death etc.) they don't have 60 votes.
#4--The Cornhusker Kickback kicks back.
Arnold Schwarzenegger told California's members of Congress
to vote NO unless their state also gets the Cornhusker
Kickback. Now Dems are scrambling to give every state a
kickback. The more talk about kickbacks and the more
uncomfortable everyone is with this entire fiasco.
#3--Abortion issue divides Democrats.
Rep. Bart Stupak has already voiced his opposition to Nelson's
compromise and says he has the votes to stop any abortion-
funding ObamaCare bill. An equal number of House Democrats
have vowed to torpedo any final bill that includes Stupak's
amendment. One group must blink for ObamaCare to pass.
#2--Three House Democrats change their votes.
Abortion is just one of the issues dividing Democrats. Rep.
Cantor has identified 34 House Democrats who are facing a
very difficult vote based on three issues: abortion, Medicare
Advantage, and state budget crises. It is now an election year.
The pressure is building. If three members feel enough heat
to switch their votes, ObamaCare fails.
#1--The Massachusetts Miracle.
The Bay State's special election next week to fill the late
Sen. Kennedy's seat is now a tossup in some polls, and
Republican candidate Scott Brown has pledged to be the
41st vote to block ObamaCare. If Brown is seated before
the final ObamaCare vote, game over. There is already
talk that if Brown wins, Democrats will stall his election
certification in order to keep him from casting the
The special election is next Tuesday (1/19), before any final
votes will be cast on ObamaCare. If a Republican takes Teddy
Kennedy's seat, I say all bets are off. Democrats from
coast-to-coast will suddenly get a lot more nervous about
voting for ObamaCare. Unlike old king Belshazzar in the
book of Daniel, they won't need a prophet to interpret the
"handwriting on the wall" -- vote now for ObamaCare and
get defeated in November.