What are the hottest races in the House for 2010? To get answers to that question, you need to visit Stuart Rothenberg at http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/. His December 3, 2009 column says the following about key House races:
There are two caveats that go with the list. First, there are strong arguments for including at least half a dozen other districts on the list. So, not being on this list doesn’t mean a contest is not extremely competitive. Second, since the midterm elections are still almost a year off, this list is likely to change significantly before November.
Louisiana’s 2nd: Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao, the only Republican to vote for the House’s health care reform bill, had no business winning this majority-black district. He won only because of the timing of the 2008 elections and the unique problems of then-Rep. William Jefferson (D). This time, Democrats are likely to have an unindicted nominee, which should end Cao’s service in Congress at one term. Two state Representatives have already announced they are running. Expect a turnover.
Delaware’s At-Large: Rep. Mike Castle’s decision to run for Senate was great news for the National Republican Senatorial Committee but bad news for House Republicans. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) was already running when Castle made his announcement, so Democrats have a serious candidate in the race. Since the state leans Democratic, Republicans will need to find a formidable nominee even to contest the seat seriously.
Louisiana’s 3rd: With Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) running for Senate, this open seat gives the GOP an excellent takeover opportunity. The district gave President Barack Obama only 37 percent of the vote in 2008, so the Republican nominee should benefit from normal midterm dynamics. Of course, with a late August primary, the race won’t shake out for months.
Virginia’s 5th: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) seems more interested in doing what he thinks is right than getting re-elected. That’s the only way to explain his votes supporting House Democrats’ cap-and-trade and health care reform bills. State Sen. Robert Hurt (R) is expected to challenge Perriello, and the Congressman is in deep, deep trouble. Obama’s 48 percent showing last year in this district understates Perriello’s challenge next year.
Maryland’s 1st: Unlike Perriello, Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) has voted as if he is trying to be re-elected. But he barely scraped by Republican Andy Harris in an open-seat contest last time, and the midterm electorate will make his re-election bid more difficult. He has a chance to win another term, but the odds aren’t in his favor. Obama drew only 40 percent of the vote in the 1st in 2008.
Kansas’ 3rd: When Rep. Dennis Moore announced his retirement last week, Democratic prospects tanked. While Obama won this district with 51 percent, it generally leans Republican, and the open seat during a midterm election looks like a juicy GOP target.
Ohio’s 1st: Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) knocked off then-Rep. Steve Chabot (R) last year, and now Chabot is trying to return the favor. Expected lower turnout among Democratic core groups, especially younger voters and blacks, places this district at great risk even though Obama won it with 55 percent.
Ohio’s 15th: Freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) has many of the same problems — and the same challenges — that confront Driehaus in the state’s 1st district. Unlike Driehaus, Kilroy faces a rematch against an opponent who has never won district-wide. But former state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) should be a formidable foe.
Florida’s 8th: Rep. Alan Grayson (D), another freshman, has gone out of his way to be partisan and inflammatory. That’s a good way to raise money and attract the fawning admiration of liberal activists, but it isn’t the best way to get re-elected in this Republican-leaning district that went for Obama with 52 percent. The GOP doesn’t yet have a “name” challenger, and the party may never get one. But given Grayson’s recent behavior, they may not need one to take back this district after a single term.
New Mexico’s 2nd: Rep. Harry Teague faces former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who gave up his seat in 2008 to run for Senate. Teague has tried to vote his district, but he isn’t being helped by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and Obama, who drew 49 percent of the district’s vote in 2008. Definitely a midterm problem for Democrats.
New Hampshire’s 2nd: The Granite State has swung strongly Democratic of late — probably too strongly considering the state’s fundamentals. This open seat, and the likely candidacy of former Rep. Charles Bass (R), should give Republicans at least an even money chance of winning back the district during the midterm elections. But attorney Ann McLane Kuster, the early favorite for the Democratic nomination and the daughter of a former liberal Republican state legislator, should be a formidable standard-bearer for her party.
New York’s 23rd: Special election winner Rep. Bill Owens won his seat with less than 50 percent of the vote, and if Republicans find a nominee who can appeal to both conservatives and moderates, Owens will find himself in trouble. His first vote was for the House health care reform bill.
Tomorrow (New Year's Day), I'll be writing (and not for the last time) about what Republicans must do to take back the House of Representatives . . . and end Nancy Pelosi's tenure as Speaker of the House.
Showing posts with label VA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VA. Show all posts
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Is GOP Brand "Dog Food?"
On Tuesday, I'll be taking a very rare day off, but a new column will be up on this blog bright and early Wednesday. I invite to go either to http://pennsylvaniaforjohmccain.blogspot.com and/or to: http://hillarysupportersformccain.blogspot.com. Both of them are (relatively) new and GOOD!
Okay, I've now had more than 50,000 (!) visitors to my various blogs. My goal is get 150,000-plus additional visitors by Election Day. If I can somehow accomplish that, as well as get many other bloggers to "adopt" the candidates, those could be major factors in getting one (or more!) my "underdog" congressional candidates elected. You can read about several outstanding candidates on: http://pennsylvaniaforjohmccain.blogspot.com/. Keep coming back and tell your friends and supporters this site exist. Any ad revenue I can generated from Google AdSense will go to John McCain and other top-flight Republicans.
If you'd like to read about some truly superb Republican candidates, please visit my Pennsylvania blog. I'll reprint this column there, but generally they are distinctive. The column on my "Hillary" blog basically deals with Mrs. Clinton's options now that Obama appears certain to win the nomination.
It’s come to my attention (and how!) that a lot of Republicans are concerned about Rep. Tom Davis’ recent 20-page memo proclaiming the Republican Party as the equivalent of a “dead man walking.” He said if the “Republican Party brand” was a “dog food” it would be pulled from the shelves.
Davis is a 7th term Republican congressman from Virginia’s 11th District (Fairfax County, just outside DC). He’s retiring this year on a huge pension and life-time health benefits for him and his. As a congressman, he’s as “Beltway as it gets.” He’s one of a handful of Christian Scientists in Congress.
I hope he doesn’t regard his leaving as one of the operative causes of what he sees as the demise of the Republican Party. His comments don’t frighten me; they irritate me.
If the Republican Party has its troubles – and it does – people like him are responsible. He’s one of the Republican “leaders.” Tom Davis, whose voting record is half liberal, half conservative, voted for most of the big spending bills he now decries.
He loved his “earmarks,” those wasteful “special projects” made famous by Alaska’s “Bridge to Nowhere.” He never realized that no Republican congressman or congresswoman anymore can support earmarks, because they are invariably wasteful spending that adds to the budget deficit.
Tom’s constituents are presumably creating uproar over gasoline prices reaching $4 a gallon. However, Tom voted against drilling in ANWR, one of a number of Republicans who did so. Tom is one of those Republicans who think it’s a good idea to drill for and produce oil in other countries, but not in ours. People in Mideast call that hypocrisy, and it’s one reason they refuse to produce additional oil to satisfy our needs.
As I suggested earlier, Tom is one of those who uses the hip phrase “Republican brand.”
Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “History is the lengthened shadow of a man (person).” Well, Tom, a political Party is the extension of the people in it. It is not “Frosted Flakes” or a Hyundai car.
If you have excellent people, you have a great Party. If you more than your share of Mark Foleys (of nasty e-mail fame), or Duke Cunningham (now in jail for bribery), or Bob Ney (also in jail), you have a Party that needs to rethink who it is and what it wants to be.
The Democrat’s “brand” is doing very well either. Right now, the national approval rating for Congress is lower than George Bush’s. It’s at 22%. That figure is a vote on the performance of people like Tom Davis. It’s a failing grade and one people like him richly deserve.
The Republican “brand” (i.e., the people running for office) in Pennsylvania is very strong. That’s because the people – Melissa Hart, Marina Kats, Tom Manion, Toni Gilhooley, and Mike Livingston – are outstanding human beings. Their life stories are tales of heroism and perseverance in the face of adversity.
Tom Davis one of the rudderless “leaders” who helped create the mess in Washington. Now, he’s turned around and, for the first time in his life, discovered there . . . a mess.
Spare us your lectures Tom. In Pennsylvania we’re planning to send a much better grade of people to Congress. They are going to solve problems – in national security, in spending, in terrorism threats, in education, and in crime – that you barely touched in your 14 years in the House. He walked many miles in the halls of Congress, but he left no footprints.
The Republican congressional candidates are going to take back seats we lost in 2006 –and add a couple of surprises for the Democrats.
(More on this and related subjects in coming days. The columns will be on my Pennsylvania blog and on the two national ones. My emphasis will be on ways to solve our great national problems. Your comments are welcome.
BELOW: HOW MANY REPUBLICANS ARE AWARE OF THIS DISTINGUISHED HISTORY OF OUR PARTY? (FROM: http://grandoldpartisan.typepad.com/)
Abraham Lincoln, the Republican Party's second presidential nominee
On this day in 1860, Abraham Lincoln won the Republican Party's presidential nomination. Easily overlooked is the fact that both he and the 1856 nominee, Georgia's John C. Fremont, were southerners.
John Marshall Harlan, Republican dissenter from the Plessy v. Ferguson decision
On this day in 1896, the U.S. Supreme Court issued the Plessy v. Ferguson decision, which declared "separate but equal" to be constitutional. Dissenting from this infamous decision was Justice John Marshall Harlan, who wrote:"Our Constitution is color-blind, and neither knows nor tolerates classes among citizens."
After commanding a U.S. Army regiment during the Civil War, Harlan was elected Attorney General of Kentucky in 1863. Running on the Republican ticket, he lost two races for Governor before President Rutherford Hayes (R-OH) appointed him to the Supreme Court in 1877.
President Eisenhower appointed his grandson, John Harlan II, to the Supreme Court in 1955.
Okay, I've now had more than 50,000 (!) visitors to my various blogs. My goal is get 150,000-plus additional visitors by Election Day. If I can somehow accomplish that, as well as get many other bloggers to "adopt" the candidates, those could be major factors in getting one (or more!) my "underdog" congressional candidates elected. You can read about several outstanding candidates on: http://pennsylvaniaforjohmccain.blogspot.com/. Keep coming back and tell your friends and supporters this site exist. Any ad revenue I can generated from Google AdSense will go to John McCain and other top-flight Republicans.
If you'd like to read about some truly superb Republican candidates, please visit my Pennsylvania blog. I'll reprint this column there, but generally they are distinctive. The column on my "Hillary" blog basically deals with Mrs. Clinton's options now that Obama appears certain to win the nomination.
It’s come to my attention (and how!) that a lot of Republicans are concerned about Rep. Tom Davis’ recent 20-page memo proclaiming the Republican Party as the equivalent of a “dead man walking.” He said if the “Republican Party brand” was a “dog food” it would be pulled from the shelves.
Davis is a 7th term Republican congressman from Virginia’s 11th District (Fairfax County, just outside DC). He’s retiring this year on a huge pension and life-time health benefits for him and his. As a congressman, he’s as “Beltway as it gets.” He’s one of a handful of Christian Scientists in Congress.
I hope he doesn’t regard his leaving as one of the operative causes of what he sees as the demise of the Republican Party. His comments don’t frighten me; they irritate me.
If the Republican Party has its troubles – and it does – people like him are responsible. He’s one of the Republican “leaders.” Tom Davis, whose voting record is half liberal, half conservative, voted for most of the big spending bills he now decries.
He loved his “earmarks,” those wasteful “special projects” made famous by Alaska’s “Bridge to Nowhere.” He never realized that no Republican congressman or congresswoman anymore can support earmarks, because they are invariably wasteful spending that adds to the budget deficit.
Tom’s constituents are presumably creating uproar over gasoline prices reaching $4 a gallon. However, Tom voted against drilling in ANWR, one of a number of Republicans who did so. Tom is one of those Republicans who think it’s a good idea to drill for and produce oil in other countries, but not in ours. People in Mideast call that hypocrisy, and it’s one reason they refuse to produce additional oil to satisfy our needs.
As I suggested earlier, Tom is one of those who uses the hip phrase “Republican brand.”
Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “History is the lengthened shadow of a man (person).” Well, Tom, a political Party is the extension of the people in it. It is not “Frosted Flakes” or a Hyundai car.
If you have excellent people, you have a great Party. If you more than your share of Mark Foleys (of nasty e-mail fame), or Duke Cunningham (now in jail for bribery), or Bob Ney (also in jail), you have a Party that needs to rethink who it is and what it wants to be.
The Democrat’s “brand” is doing very well either. Right now, the national approval rating for Congress is lower than George Bush’s. It’s at 22%. That figure is a vote on the performance of people like Tom Davis. It’s a failing grade and one people like him richly deserve.
The Republican “brand” (i.e., the people running for office) in Pennsylvania is very strong. That’s because the people – Melissa Hart, Marina Kats, Tom Manion, Toni Gilhooley, and Mike Livingston – are outstanding human beings. Their life stories are tales of heroism and perseverance in the face of adversity.
Tom Davis one of the rudderless “leaders” who helped create the mess in Washington. Now, he’s turned around and, for the first time in his life, discovered there . . . a mess.
Spare us your lectures Tom. In Pennsylvania we’re planning to send a much better grade of people to Congress. They are going to solve problems – in national security, in spending, in terrorism threats, in education, and in crime – that you barely touched in your 14 years in the House. He walked many miles in the halls of Congress, but he left no footprints.
The Republican congressional candidates are going to take back seats we lost in 2006 –and add a couple of surprises for the Democrats.
(More on this and related subjects in coming days. The columns will be on my Pennsylvania blog and on the two national ones. My emphasis will be on ways to solve our great national problems. Your comments are welcome.
BELOW: HOW MANY REPUBLICANS ARE AWARE OF THIS DISTINGUISHED HISTORY OF OUR PARTY? (FROM: http://grandoldpartisan.typepad.com/)
Abraham Lincoln, the Republican Party's second presidential nominee
On this day in 1860, Abraham Lincoln won the Republican Party's presidential nomination. Easily overlooked is the fact that both he and the 1856 nominee, Georgia's John C. Fremont, were southerners.
John Marshall Harlan, Republican dissenter from the Plessy v. Ferguson decision
On this day in 1896, the U.S. Supreme Court issued the Plessy v. Ferguson decision, which declared "separate but equal" to be constitutional. Dissenting from this infamous decision was Justice John Marshall Harlan, who wrote:"Our Constitution is color-blind, and neither knows nor tolerates classes among citizens."
After commanding a U.S. Army regiment during the Civil War, Harlan was elected Attorney General of Kentucky in 1863. Running on the Republican ticket, he lost two races for Governor before President Rutherford Hayes (R-OH) appointed him to the Supreme Court in 1877.
President Eisenhower appointed his grandson, John Harlan II, to the Supreme Court in 1955.
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