Looming Republican Disaster? Balderdash

I was on BlogTalkRadio Thursday evening with Eric Dondero (host) and Murray Sabrin (Republican primary candidate for NJ U.S. Senate). The broadcast is avaiable (on podcast) at www.blogtalkradio.com/libertarian. I urge you to listen (only partly because I'm on it and you get to hear my Rochester, NY accent) but mainly because Eric and I launched something you haven't heard recently: a ferocious defense of the Iraq War (and John McCain's position on it). Would love to hear your thoughts at TalkTop65@aol.com. On the show I called attention to the web sites of Melissa Hart, Toni Gilhooley, Michael Livingston, Marina Kats, and Tom Manion. Tom is a former Marine colonel. Sadly, his son Travis was killed in action in Iraq. Say a prayer for Tom and his son.

Hart: http://www.peoplewithhart.com/
Gilhooley: http://www.gilhooleyforcongress.com/
Livingston: http://www.livingstonforcongress.com/
Kats: http://www.katsforcongress.com/.
Manion: http://www.votemanion.com/

Please take a few minutes to visit the web sites of these wonderful candidates -- and offer them whatever support you can provide. Thanks.


Media, candidates, activists, and others: Please feel free to post, reprint, forward, or discuss this piece. Candidates: I hope you'll establish a link on your own web site and tell your visitors that I'll be writing regularly about your campaign. The url for this blog is: http://stevemaloneygop.blogspot.com. Eventually, our combined efforts should result in tens of thousands of "hits" on your web site, which will generate various form of support, including contributions. "We must all hang together, or most assuredly, we will all hang separately." (B. Franklin) I receive no financial support or direction from any candidate. If you need to correspond via e-mail, you can reach me at: TalkTop65@aol.com.

Today, I’m writing broadly about the following piece from Politico.com:

"GOP Leaders Warn of Election Disasterpolitico.com — Shell-shocked House Republicans got warnings from leaders past and present Tuesday: Your party’s message isn’t good enough to prevent disaster in November, and neither is the NRCC’s [National Republican Congressional Committee's] money. The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama or anti-Rev. Wright campaign, they are simply going to fail. More… (US Elections 2008)"

The Politico article's message is either poppycock or balderdash. I haven't figured out which.

A candidate's "brand" is not the Party. Rather, it is the candidate herself or himself. Also, if those supposed "leaders" had done a better job leading, well, things would be better. If our “leaders” (former and present) are people like Don Young (political architect of the “Bridge to Nowhere”), Tom DeLay, Mark Foley, Newt-of-many-wives and Tom Reynolds (who had to spend $5.2 million to get reelected in a solidly Republican district), well, we can live without leaders like them.

The real leaders of the Republican Party are people like Bonnie West of Washington, PA, Sharon Caliendo of Norman, Oklahoma, Adam Brickley of Colorado Springs, and Brad Marston of Boston, Massachusetts. They’re out there this year – as in the past – busting their butts to send great candidates to Washington, DC. You’ve never heard of them perhaps, but you’ve seen the political fruits of their labors.

Political operative Sharon Caliendo is one of the main reasons Dr. Tom Coburn is in the U.S. Senate – and not back practicing gynecology. Adam Brickley almost single-handedly engineering the rise of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to national prominence and vice-presidential consideration. Brad Marston helped resuscitate what appeared to be the stone-dead campaign of John McCain. Bonnie West has been a key factor in revitalizing the Republican Party in a critical area of western Pennsylvania.

I wouldn’t trade one of them for four Tom DeLays.There's much hand-wringing lately over the loss of Republican candidate Woody Jenkins in a supposedly "safe" election in Louisiana. As Karl Rove put it Tuesday night, "Look, Woody Jenkins [who's lost more elections than Britney Spears has misplaced underwear] is a fine man, but he's terrible candidate." I support only exceptional candidates.

As for Woody's loss, the best way to get candidates for congressional races is NOT to "round up all the usual suspects." Instead, get people who have great integrity and a real passion for the voters of their district. They usually win – later if not sooner.

Long-time readers will know that I regularly rage against the NRCC for not giving Diana Irey a dime. She was the Republican candidate who ran so ferociously and well against “The Prince of Pork,” John Murtha. It can be a thankless task running against someone like Murtha who has sold his soul to every lobbyist with a bag-full of cash.

Diana raised $856,000 on her own. She got contributions from all 50 states. Her total number of contributors was 7,000 – significantly more than Murtha’s total, although he had many more large donors. Many of those who donated to Diana’s campaign were giving money for the first time to a political candidate.

The Diana Lynn Ireys of the world are the future of the Republican Party. She is a rock of integrity, a devoted Christian who has “a love affair with humanity.” She’s teenie (5 foot, 100 pounds) but as an orator she outdoes Barack Obama.

At the same time Diana was getting zip from the national Republican establishment, Mark Foley – prior to the nasty e-mails scandal – had accumulated a campaign "war chest" of, oh, $2 million. I assume Mark was not one of the “leaders” cited by Politico.com. He should never have been in Congress.

How can good Republican candidates – in spite of Politco’s ominous message – win this year? A while back, Sharon Caliendo sent me her analysis of how Mary Fallin, a congresswoman from the Oklahoma City area (5th district) won.

Some people, even the brilliant Michael Barone, portray Mary’s district as a Republican “slam-dunk.” But is it really? In fact, the district is two-third white – and one-third other. In fact, it sounds suspiciously like one of those districts where Democrats run unopposed election cycle after election cycle.

Sharon said that Mary went door-to-door month after month. She wore out several pairs of shoes. She raised a good deal of money, mainly because she would not take “no” for an answer. She ended up winning by 60% to 37% in what was supposedly (and actually) a horrible year for Republicans.

I am working very hard to ensure that John McCain wins the 21 electoral votes of Pennsylvania, which probably will ensure that he wins the presidency.

I’m also doing everything in my power to ensure that Melissa Hart wins back her congressional seat in western Pennsylvania, that Toni Gilhooley wins her uphill battle in Harrisburg and parts east, and that Marina Kats defeats the indescribably awful Allyson Schwartz in Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia. I’m also supporting Michael Livingston in a very difficult race in Philadelphia.

These three women will come nowhere near outspending their opponents, but they will outwork them and outsmart them. Gee, what do we have to do to restore the Republican “brand?” We need to go out with superior candidates – like Melissa, Toni, Michael, and Marina – and advance the process of winning elections.

Republicans: Good Investments, Bad Investments

Question: Is it possible that, as 54% of the American people believe, that Barack Obama shared a least some views with Rev. Jeremiah Wright?

Answer: My greatest fear is that he shares many such views. Michelle Obama has said, "In 2008 America is a mean place" and that she has only become "proud of [her] country" as her husband has become successful in the primaries. Frankly, does Obama agree with his wife? Who knows? Right now, Obama looks dispirted and unelectable.

Since this is a national blog -- one that talks a lot about the presidential race -- why have I been discussing congressional races in Pennsylvania? I'm doing so because it's essential that McCain, if he wins on Nov. 4, have enough Republicans in Congress to keep him from having a failed presidency. If he has to depend on Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, then God save the republic.

As you've been hearing for some time, Pennsylvania, where I live, will be a crucial battleground in this year's election. If John McCain wins the Keystone State, it's probable he will be the next President.

For McCain to win, the Republican Party must get out the vote. That will require a lot of organization at the district (congressional), county, and local levels. Right now, the organizational capacity is questionable. The Party in Pennsylvania -- and other states -- is still reeling from the heavy losses in 2006. The stench from the Mark Foley, Duke Cunningham, and Bob Ney scandals has not yet fully abated.

I've been supporting several Republican candidates between I believe they and John McCain can build upon one another's strength. If those candidates flounder, it will hurt the Republican cause in general and our presidential hopes in particular.

The candidates I've endorsed include Melissa Hart (in the 4th district -- where I reside -- opposing Democrat incumbent Jason Altmire); Marina Kats (in the 13th district, opposing Democrat incumbent Allyson Schwartz); Toni Gilhooley (in the 17th district, opposing Democrat incumbent Tim Holden); and Michael Livingston (in the 2d district, opposing Democrat incumbent Chaka Fattah).

If I can read the national Republican Party's mind -- and, in this single case, I believe I can -- they believe Melissa Hart almost certainly will win. Frankly, Melissa's loss in 2006 was a fluke, a result of a temporary anti-Republican tidal wave.

What does the national GOP think about the prospects for the other candidates, Kats, Gilhooley, and Livingston? They probably believe all three will lose. They might be right in all three instances, but -- at the beginning of May -- there's no certainly about next November's results.

Yes, Kats and Gilhooley are currently big underdogs in their races. But I've told them both that I believe, if they do just about everything right, they can win. I'm not stupid, and I know the odds, but Gilhooley and Kats are going build great support in their districts. Both of them, especially Gilhooley, are going to benefit from McCain's strong showing in the state. As for Kats, her youth ntelligence, and patriotism are going to contrast sharply with Schwartz, who has none of those qualities

As for Michael Livingston, he will gains tens of thousands of votes more than any Republican has in his district. He's not waging what is known as a "starter campaign," but he is establishing a foundation that the GOP has never had in the the 2d district. Livingston, a tax attorney and law professor, is a great candidate -- while his opponent, Fattah, is an awful one.

Right now (and again, this is my belief), the national Republican Party, which has millions on hand, is preparing to give Livingston, Kats, and Gilhooley a grand total of zero dollars and zero cents. Why? Because they don't believe they can win.

It's something like the old line about getting a loan from the bank. If you really need the money, the bank won't give it to you. If you don't need it, they'll give you all you ask for.

In 2006, my friend and political ally Diana Lynn Irey ran against John Murtha. In the election, Diana got nearly 80,000 votes in a district where Republicans were lucky to get 40,000. She raised $856,000. She had more individual contributors (7,000) than Murtha. She brought many people -- a lot of them young -- into Republican politics.

What did Diana get from the national Republicans -- and for that matter, from the state Republicans? Basically, she got their best wishes. But as for the check, well, it was never in the mail.

Contrast Diana's situation with that of Rep. Tom Reynolds, a member of the Republican leadership and congressman from a "safe" Republican district in upstate New York (Buffalo suburbs to Rochester suburbs). Historically, it's a district where it's nearly impossible for a Republican to lose. Reynolds, unfortunately, almost accomplished the impossible.

He won 52% to 48% in a district where a Republican should win by at least 60% to 40%. How much did it cost him to win? Almost $5.3 million dollars, an almost unimaginable sum. A good chunk of his campaign war chest came from the national Republican Party.

Look at it this way: Reynold got 30,000 more votes in his district than Irey got in hers. He spent nearly $50 per vote. In contrast, Irey spent about $11 per vote. (Just FYI, Murtha spent roughly $28 per vote.) If Diana had been able to spend, say, $22 a vote guess who might just have won the election against Murtha?

As for the Tom Reynolds of the world, they have access to huge amounts of campaign cash. If they need lots of cash from the national Party, then they're bad investments. Money sent to them is a form of political CPR.

I'm recommending that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) give Gilhooley and Kats at least $10,000 up front. I'm recommending that they give Livingston, more of a longshot, $5,000. When the three candidates use the money to build strong organizations -- and thus go up in the polls -- the NRCC should give them more money. In politics as in life, money begets money.

In its support of candidates, the NRCC doesn't seem to favor organizational development. Instead, it seems to favor having candidates in trouble spend hundreds of thousands on TV ads. Generally, at least in recent months, those candidates seem to lose.

In politics, that's not a great way to run -- or to build -- a Party

Here's a bulletin to national Republicans: TV ads, while helpful with name recognition, don't work nearly as well as they once did. In support of that position, I point to one Barack Obama. In the Pennsylvania primary, Obama broke all records for television commercials. He spent $10 million, and had a total of nearly 7,000 ads in the state. For all that, he lost to Mrs. Clinton by 9.2%.

There are reasons TV ads don't work as well now as they did a decade ago, but I'll save that subject for another day.

Frankly, the next election does not, if we lose, signify the end of the world as we know it. When we have great candidates -- as we do with Gilhooley, Kats, and Livingston, we need to support them.

In 1974 and 1976, novice candidate Newt Gingrich lost his first two races for Congress. In 1978, he finally won. Sixteen years later he was Speaker of the House.

The future of the Republican Party rests with great candidates like Irey, Hart, Kats, Gilhooley, and Livingston. I fully expect more than one of them to win on November 4. And remember, I'm the one who called Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania win -- almost down to the precise decimal point.

Note: If you want to contribute to or otherwise support the Republican candidates I've noted, click on the links above. The exception is Marina Kats, whom you can support by clicking on her link, but whose contributions should go via snail mail to:

Kats For Congress
PO Box 91
Huntingdon Valley, PA 19006

Ditch Obama, Support Marina Kats

Marina Kats, an attorney, is the Republican candidate for Congress in Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district. You can volunteer to support this superb candidate by going to: http://www.katsforcongress.com/default.aspx. Marina's Democratic opponent will be leftist Allyson Schwartz, a woman who reflects everything that's wrong with the U.S. House.

If you'd like to get on the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) mailing list, please send an e-mail to Josh Schultz at: joshschultz@nrcc.org. He presents great information and will send you about one informational e-mail per week. The following is from Karen Hanretty, NRCC Communications Director, and it shows how the Barack Obama/Rev. Wright "ticket" has become radioactive for Democrats. (At the National Press Club, Rev. Wright suggested he might be interested in the Democratic vice-presidential nomination.)

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: NRCC Communications Director Karen Hanretty
SUBJECT: Bloom Off the Obama Rose: Endorsement from Elitist No Longer Smells Sweet
DATE: April 29, 2008
The longer the chaos of the Democrat presidential primary plays out, the more a liability Barack Obama becomes to congressional candidates running on the Democrat ticket this year. Evidence that the bloom is off the Obama rose is Travis Childers’ adamant denial he accepted an endorsement from Obama.

Childers, a candidate in the open seat of Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District, told reporters, “Senator Obama hasn't endorsed my candidacy. I have not been in contact with his campaign nor has he been in contact with mine...” (WREG, April 28, 2008)

However, an email from Obama’s presidential campaign sent April 22nd encouraged supporters to make phone calls and turn out voters for Childers in the special election runoff. “Today we can give Travis the boost he needs to finish strong,” read the Obama email, “and show that our movement is dedicated to change up and down the ballot.” (Obama email, WREG, April 28, 2008)

See the story by WREG here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE1oN4bYjyg

Childers isn’t the only Democrat distancing himself from Obama. North Carolina Governor Mike Easely, a superdelegate, endorsed Hillary Clinton today over the odds-on favorite to win the state’s primary, Barack Obama. With less than a month until the Mississippi election to fill the open congressional seat, the question to Travis Childers is, “If not Obama, who? Hillary?”

Former President Bill Clinton lost the state of Mississippi in 1996, and President George W. Bush won the state in 2000 with 59% of the vote and again in 2004 by an even wider margin of 62%. No matter how you slice it, Democrat Travis Childers isn’t going to pick a candidate favorable to his district unless he endorses John McCain.

Steve adds: Well said, Karen. I hope the hapless Mr. Childers' Republican opponent runs Karen's exact comments as radio and TV ads. In at least half the congressional districts in America, an endorsement from Obama is an albatross around the neck. Most Americans recognize that Obama is an offensive elitist, and those congressional candidate who support him -- or even tolerate him -- fall into the same category.