Pennsylvania the Key in 2008

Recently a reporter asked Hillary Clinton about the rumors that Barack Obama is a Muslim. Apprently, her answer was that he's not a Muslim "as far as I know." I doubt Obama called to thank her for that response. "All's fair in love and war."

Note: Within one hour on another blog (http://pennsylvaniaforjohnmccain.blogspot.com/), I got visitors from Canada, Portugal (two), Japan, and Spain, as well as several from the U.S. I have no idea what brought them, but I hope they return often. My main blog is at: http://camp2008victorya.blogspot.com/.

Pennsylvania Gov. Edward Rendell, a traditional back-slapping, arm-twisting Philadelphia politician and staunch backer of Senator Hillary Clinton. Rendell is thoroughly corrupt and (of course) a great fundraiser, but on the positive side, he's generally amiable. Who wouldn't be?

"We don't hide from history.... We make history." (John McCain, last night in Dallas)

Pennsylvania seems destined this year to make some history of its own . . .

I started writing today's column, and then the power went out (destroying what I'd written) for two-plus hours. Ah, the wonderful (?) weather of western Pennsylvania in winter. At least, it didn't destroy my capacity for alliteration!

Much to the amazement of most of us who live in Pennsylvania, the April 22 primary here this year will really matter, at least for the Democrats. We are the last big state left that hasn't yet held a primary, although people in Florida (a huge state) and Michigan might disagree. Those two states, stripped of their delegates by the authoritarian national Democratic Party, are in political limbo.

(Oops, the power went out again, proving that this probably isn't my day!)

The Pennsylvania Primary will be an important one. Knowing what I know now, I expect the person who wins a majority of the votes in PA will be Hillary Rodham Clinton. There's no reason she shouldn't do as well here as she did in Ohio. I predicted (see below) that she'd win that state by a comfortable margin, which she did. (I also predicted she'd win Texas by a relatively narrow margin, and she carried that state by almost 100,000 votes out of roughly 2.75 million cast.

(There are problems with the Obama Campaign that even the notoriously clueless media are starting to pick up on. Mrs. Clinton has been attacking him on his thin national security credentials and his shaky views -- whatever they are -- on NAFTA. After taking off like a rocket, Obama shows some signs of falling like a rock. He is not a credible candidate for President, although he may end up with the nomination.)

Since I'm making predictions: I believe the Democratic race will be decided at the convention in Denver. I have a feeling that a significant majority of the Democratic "Super Delegates" are going to discover that Obama is not ready for Prime Time. If that happens, Mrs. Clinton could end up with the nomination. But that's a a long way away . . .

If Pennsylvania will be significant in April, it will be profoundly so in the general election. This is a state that's difficult for Republicans to win -- Gore carried it in 2004 and John Kerry won by a small margin in 2004 -- but it's one that John McCain probably has to win if he's to prevail next November.

Why? Because Ohio, the state that put GWB over the top in 2004, is looking as if it will go for the Democratic candidate (probably Obama). In presidential races that Republicans win, they generally have to carry Ohio. However, that state's generally miserable economy, especially in manufacturing, could put it in the Democratic nominee's column.

Pennsylvania is an unusual state in its politics. Statewide, the Democrats have a big registration edge (about 600,000), but many of the Democrats here -- including those in Beaver County, where I live -- are moderate or even conservative. The state has a huge number of military veterans, many of whom will be attracted to John McCain, who of course is a veteran and a former POW.

The key for Senator Obama will be the Black vote in Philadelphia and, to a lesser extent, in Pittsburgh. The rest of the state -- literally every county other than Allegheny and Philadelphia -- should go for Hillary Clinton. The Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, an old-time back room, arm-twisting politician, is strongly behind Senator Clinton, and his support will help her.

Be aware that Gov. Rendell has a big mouth. He said a few weeks ago that a good segment of Pennsylvania white Democrats wouldn't vote for a Black candidate. He's probably right, much as I hate to admit it. Look for Rendell, a Super Delegate, to make other colorful statements in the next seven weeks. He claims he doesn't want the vice-presidential nod, but many of us don't believe that. Ed Rendell's "wants" are boundless.

Much more on Pennsylvania to come.

If you're a real political junkie, buy a copy of Michael Barone's The Almanac of American Politics, 2008 edition. Barone knows a whole lot about Pennsylvania and its unusual politics.

Whither Goest Hillary Rodham Clinton?

8 p.m.: CBS News tonight mentioned that the early exit polls (ones from this a.m.?) indicated that, in Texas, the Hispanic vote (mainly going to Hillary Clinton) was way up over 2004, while the Black vote (mainly going to Obama) was DOWN. Caution: Exit polls taken during the day (remember 2004 when the exit polls suggested a President John Kerry?) are sometimes misleading. For example, Democrats (and liberal) tend to vote early, while Republicans (hey, somebody has to be at work!) tend to vote later. But if the CBS results hold throughout the day, Barack Obama is not going to win the majority of the Democratic primary vote in Texas. CNN is announcing that the vote in Texas is "competitive." Trust me, Hillary Clinton will win a majority of the vote in Ohio. She will also win a majority in Rhode Island.

Above: Obama's soaring rhetoric puts pastor (in Red State garb?) sound asleep.

Even though I expect Hillary Clinton to do well in today's voting in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont, it's nearly impossible for her to do well enough to reduce substantially Obama's 150-vote lead in "pledged" delegates. So, as far as "whither," her campaign -- an ill-conceived one -- may go, it will continue to "wither."

The wild card is this: She may have some damaging information on Barack Obama, perhaps regarding his relationship with Chicago political "fixer" and fundraiser Tony Rezko. The big question is: will she release the material to the media? Her problem is that some Democratic voters regard any criticism of Obama as somehow "unfair."

Today, it looks as if Mrs. Clinton will have a big win in Ohio and a narrow win in Texas, as well as a solid win in Rhode Island. When it comes to "The People's Republic of Vermont," who knows?

Mrs. Clinton has an extremely narrow window leading to the nomination, and if she doesn't have substantial wins in both Ohio and Texas, that window will slam shut. People in the main-stream-media (MSM) still have a hard time grasping that fact, because they're the ones who long ago proclaimed Hillary The Inevitable Winner. So much for inevitability.

Obama would be the most under-qualified presidential candidate since Ohio's Warren Gamaliel Harding, also a silver-tongued orator but an exemplar of cluelessness when it came to being President. He was, however, wise enough to die during his first (and last) term, thereby enabling a better man to become President: "Silent" Calvin Coolidge of Vermont.

If Mrs. Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas tonight, it probably won't help her much in the delegate count. Obama should remain approximately 135-140 votes ahead in pledged delegates. However, if Mrs. Clinton wins three-of-the-four states that vote today, it's unlikely she will withdraw from the race (or "suspend" her campaign). Like Mike Huckabee in the Republican race, she will be hoping for a miracle.

The Pennsylvania Primary is on April 22. If the race between Obama and Clinton continues into the Keystone State, there will be a lot of breathless coverage by the MSM. However, in Pennsylvania the Democratic vote will likely mirror the contest in Ohio. In other words, one of the candidates may pick up 4-5 "extra" delegates. For Mrs. Clinton, that would not be enough. To win the nomination, she's have to win PA by something like 90% to 10%, and that's just not going to happen.

Look for Hillary Clinton to make a fierce effort to gain an advantage in the "Super Delegates." But it's probable such delegates will vote their own self-interest, which increasingly appears to mean a majority will cast their votes for Barack Obama. It's hard to see Mrs. Clinton winning the Democratic nomination.

Will she get the V-P nod? Not unless Barack Obama has lost his mind. As the V-P choice, she would end up costing him more votes than she would attract.

____________________________

Why America Would be Headed for Disaster Without John McCain

By Yomin Postelnik

Canada Free Press

Sunday, March 2, 2008

For the past 25 years one voice has fought tirelessly to reduce congressional spending, often fighting members of his own party to do so. This is no small feat. Opposing the spending projects of your fellow members does not generally win you any friends.
It touches on the issues most important to them and their individual records, bringing money to their district or their state. Only someone who can put the good of the nation as a whole ahead of the interests of his friends and colleagues, colleagues he needs in order to pass any legislation that he or she wishes to enact, will care to enter this fight. Few will win and even those who do win a few rounds will be easily tempted to back down in the long run. Yet in spite of the consequences, John McCain has fought spending with a remarkable consistency.
The issue is of primary importance. According to the Congressional Budget Office, if we do not curb the level of spending immediately, the only alternatives in 20 years will be to either double taxation while slashing spending by at least a half (and those projections assume a sustained level of economic growth) or to watch our dollar become worthless abroad and soon after at home, as few will want to save, trade and invest in a currency considered to be of little value worldwide. The Director of the Congressional Budget Office is equally open about the fact that no member of Congress will do anything about this matter until people realize the necessity to act. Few politicians want to embrace unpopular positions like huge rollbacks and caps on spending. That’s the difference between them and leaders. Leaders work for five, ten, twenty years to alert the public to important realities and awaken their hearts and minds to problems and propose solutions that have little support before the public realizes their need. When it comes to the all important issue of wasteful spending, an issue that can mean the difference between continued growth and expansion or economic collapse, John McCain is such a leader. Remarkably, his battles against pork and pork’s favorite barbeque chefs on both sides of the congressional aisle, haven’t tarnished his ability to work with members of congress. Though a lesser man would have alienated himself from members of both sides with his steadfast campaign against their habits, John McCain’s sincere devotion to this cause, his steadfastness and his reasoned approach to all other issues have earned him a level of respect and cooperation from members of both parties than most senators can ever hope to achieve. The fight against spending is simply another battle the scars of which John McCain wears well. Even more than the need to cut spending is how we go about doing so. John McCain deserves much praise for the way he’s gone about this as well. McCain recognizes the need to invest in education, that every dollar spent on it is of immeasurable benefit to society. From a purely economic standpoint, in the long run funding education saves much more on fighting crime and a whole host of societal problems that correlate with low education. Educational funding also gives our nation’s children the ability to harness opportunity and develop new products and services that will both better society and keep us economically strong. John McCain favors a reasoned approach to spending. While he wholeheartedly supports funding education, the military and our intelligence community that are absolutely crucial to our safety in dangerous times, with equal passion he opposes wasteful spending and unnecessary projects that favor a particular region or special interest. It is these projects that have the potential to cripple the economy and eventually lead to funds being drying up, even for needed projects. To protect our education, economy, safety and security, we need to act now. The national debt is out of hand and we cannot continue to borrow money forever. We are closer than almost anyone realizes to losing our current credit rating and to having our debt turn to junk bond status. The United States has maintained a triple A bond score since 1917, but this year Moody’s attached an asterisk to the rating, a note of caution. The Congressional Budget Office worries about a real decline in rating. This is all thanks to the reckless spending of both parties. There’s one candidate who’s willing to do something about it. His name is John McCain and he’s been fighting ruinous pork barrel spending for over 25 years. This is one of the reasons I suggest that entrepreneurs and all who care for the nation’s economy support John McCain for President. He understands the need to invest in education, defense and technology and brings concrete solutions to the table as opposed to empty platitudes. But most of all, his career-long battle against reckless spending shows him for the man of integrity, sound judgment and leadership that he is.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/2106

McCain Palin Ticket, Texas Revelations

Rush Limbaugh put the graphic above up on his web site yesterday. As many of you know, I have been a strong supporter of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, often called "the nation's most popular elected official," as the best choice for for V-P on the Republican ticket.


A person of impeccable honor and integrity, Sarah is a dedicated Christian, a fiscal conservative, pro-life and a Life Member of the NRA. Beyond that, she's the mother of four children, the oldest of whom, Track Palin, age 18, is an infantryman in the U.S. Army. Track enlisted on 9/11 in 2007.


If Senator McCain does choose her, it's highly likely that, in either 2012 or 2016, she will become America's first female President.


Here's the link to Limbaugh's homepage: http://rushlimbaugh.com/home/today.guest.html

Also, the person who, one year ago, launched the Draft Palin for V-P movement is Adam Brickley, an extremely talented college student from Colorado Springs. He has written extensively about why Sarah Heath Palin should be the V-P choice. You can find his outstanding blog at: http://palinforvp.blogspot.com. I was the second blogger to join Adam's movement.


I have never supported Sarah merely because she's a woman. I support her because I believe she would be a caring, intellectually and politically gifted vice-president and, at a later date, a great President. She's one of those principled conservatives who isn't angry at everybody. She's a great listener, someone who understands that our government is one "by, for, and of the people."


I hope all McCain supporters will urge the Senator to select Sarah Heath Palin, Alaska's favorite daughter, as his vice-presidential running mate. She would be Barack Obama's worst nightmare -- and America's best hope for the future. She's a younger, female version of Ronald Reagan, and she's the most exciting political personality to come along since the "Gipper."

Texas Revelations on McCain, Obama

I received the following e-mail today from one of the finest, most knowledgeable political operatives in the Oklahoma-Texas area, Sharon Caliendo, of Norman, Oklahoma. Sharon has lived and worked in many states, always for Republican causes. She's close to Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Governor Rick Perry of Texas. Both of those men are ardent supporters of Senator John McCain.


Steve --

Been in and out of Texas this week but in my spare time I have put up the two blogs.

I would say that McCain will have no problem winning TX no matter who the Dems put up and if it is Obama, you can put TX in the win column before they even vote. Learned that the people fainting are following the campaign around. One of the guys told me that an Obama rally in some areas has been made up of whites and blacks who are on the government take better known as welfare. He was saying they are talking about college students but he thinks they are more like middle and high school. He was at a rally where the Austin birdcage paper said a lot of UT students were there but he disagreed because he saw very few UT shirts and they always wear them to rallies. He saw kids some getting off buses coming into the area which would not have been UT students.

Huckabee shot himself in the foot today. Gov Perry asked Huckabee to withdraw from the race and Huckster basically asked why he would take advice from someone who had endorsed Rudy when he was wrong about that. Never did get the exact quote as Rick's aide was so mad when he called. Someone from McCain had asked Rick to ask Huckabee to please withdraw from the race and join to defeat the Dem in November but Huckster was too arrogant for that. Set off a firestorm that is not going to end any time soon.

I told our State Chair if Huckabee is the keynote speaker for the OK Convention I am not going to sit and listen to the windbag and will walk out as he starts to speak. He said, "you wouldn't" -- bet me I wouldn't!

Mark and I were complaining the blogs that were anti-Obama were not exactly on McCain's side so we decided to add another one with that in mind. We figured running them as Republicans and McCain supporters would make a difference rather then 'conservative' owners who don't like McCain much better then the Dems in some cases.

Thanks for the info on Iraq -- I am getting people to help me out with the 2nd blog -- they are not big McCain supporters but they detest Obama and Hillary and will definitely support him in November. This gives them a way to get involved and we can all help McCain.

All I need is more hours in my day and everything will work itself out!

Take care!

Sharon

NOTE FROM STEVE: IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHO PRECISELY BARACK OBAMA IS, PLEASE READ THE ALARMING -- BUT ACCURATE -- STORY BELOW.